Oil: The Americans Are Coming, And With Them, Trouble Galore

ELIAS BIRYABAREMA

Kampala—In December 2000, the National Intelligence Council, a think-tank within United States’ CIA declared in a report that sub-Saharan Africa, “will play an increasing role in global energy markets,” according to John Ghazvinian in his 2007 book, Untapped, The Scramble For Africa’s Oil.

That observation set off a train of broad commercial and diplomatic maneuvering that has seen the US move decisively to counter China’s tightening grip on Africa’s energy resources.
The latest in this effort is a covert scheme designed to entrench US interests in Uganda’s burgeoning petroleum industry.

On 22nd Oct, the United States Trade and Development Agency, USTDA, announced that it had procured a U.S. consultant, RKR Enterprises, to begin exploring Uganda’s emerging petroleum and gas industry and advise on where the US may, “grant assistance.”

Often, the language used in such press statements, in keeping with the subtlety and complexity of Western diplomacy, is innocent enough.
“Potential actions that could result from the mission (the project),” said USTDA’s statement, “include technical assistance programs, feasibility studies, training activities, and/or orientation visits.”

Fair enough, you thought!

Not quite.

Implicit in the “technical assistance,” “capacity building,” “training activities,” and similar other phrases is a simple and urgent goal of guaranteeing a constant flow of resources (oil, minerals etc) from the aid recipient to the donor nation in question.

All the discoveries combined, Uganda now can (tentatively, because it’s at an exploratory level) produce about 32,000 barrels of oil per day, bopd. Exploration is continuing and the two frontline companies—Tullow Oil of UK and Heritage Corp of Canada—have hinted they will strike far greater reserves toward the northern tip of Lake Albert in Western in Uganda. Expectation is soaring, too, over the exploratory fields stretching far out toward West Nile.

Taken together thus, these developments illuminate the US’s real intentions in the sudden offer of “technical assistance,” to Uganda’s petroleum sector even before anyone has asked.

Its move is consonant with a recent wave of diplomatic overtures extended by China, India and other Asian nations all eager to carve out their share of the unfolding petroleum bounty.

Currently, competition is intensifying among the world’s major powers (US, China, India and EU) for the dwindling world petroleum resources. China has particularly upset the world’s energy balance as its demand for oil to fuel its industrial juggernaut has grown at a terrifying speed. Lately it has scrambled to redirect more of the flow of Africa’s oil towards itself, prompting a swift EU and American response in form of sweetened deals for greater economic cooperation and a boost in direct aid.

So what’s the upshot of all this and what really should concern an average Ugandan?

Well, start to get worried when the US gets entwined in Uganda’s unfolding oil politics. Eager to extract as much oil supply as possible, the US will basically leave Museveni to rule Ugandans as he pleases, as long as he doesn’t interfere with its petroleum interests.

With US diplomatic largess to underwrite his grip on power, a beefy treasury to purchase loyalty and purchase arms to brutalize opponents, Ugandans can expect to suffer under Museveni’s insanity for the next decade.