A successor from the palace. But who might that be?

On January 2, 2007 the Red Pepper reported that intelligence personnel were stuck with a report that showed that President Yoweri Museveni's wife, Janet Kataha Museveni intends to contest in the 2011 presidential elections.

Although that story appeared extra-ordinarily remarkable - for better or worse - it was never picked up by pundits in Kampala's energetic debate circuit and it soon slipped under the media radar and then off to the pages of history.

Noteworthy though was that, that report was never refuted by State House.
A few attuned commentators noted it and, in a review of the major news of the year, Daily Monitor writer Mr Timothy Kalyegira cited it as one of the key political news of 2007.

For the first time, a small window was opened for the public into the scale of the political ambitions of the second most powerful member of State House.
And even beyond that it also helped signal to Ugandans the sort of political fault-lines and the jockeying that could form in Uganda's innermost sanctum of power in case President Museveni ever becomes incapacitated in office or resigns.

Insiders in State House told Daily Monitor that President Museveni does not espouse Janet's involvement in politics.
When she announced, late in 2005, that she would compete for the Ruhama County MP seat, Mr Museveni was later quoted by the media as saying that he had tried to discourage his wife from engaging in elective politics.

When someone chooses to set aside the revered status of 'Mother of the Nation' and enter the muddy fields of elective and characteristically partisan politics, it cannot be for a small reason.

Then she explained that in standing, she was obeying a command from God. After gaining the experience of competitive constituency politics for five years, what is to stop God from commanding her to seek the bigger constituency called Uganda?

But since Museveni did not want her in politics, it can be deduced that he has other ideas in his head regarding which members of his circle should succeed him in case his health were to fail him.

In June 2006, while speaking at the launch of Vumilia, an association of soldiers' widows and orphans at Sheraton Hotel, Museveni dropped an eye-popping hint - First Son, Maj. Muhoozi Keinerugaba, he suggested, should start from where he finishes.

Mr Museveni was quoted by Daily Monitor as saying in Luganda, "Omwana yagenda okutwala mu maso omulimo gwa kitawe. Mutabani wange namuyita Muhoozi. Enkya, Muhoozi yagenda okuwolera eggwanga," meaning he desired Maj.Muhoozi to carry on his job.
According to the story Mr Museveni clearly signalled he had high expectations for his son and also described Gen. Salim Saleh as one of those NRM cadres that are graduating into "more challenging roles." Which job does Museveni want Maj. Muhoozi to carry on? Cattle ranching at Kisozi and Rwakitura?

If this is what he is being prepared for, veterinary studies do not feature prominently on the various curricular he has been pursuing at different academies abroad over the past decade. And the only employment he has held in between was not in the Ministries of Agriculture, but that of Defence?

Maj. Muhoozi attended the world-famous military academy, Sandhurst of UK where he graduated in May 2001 and was later curiously promoted by Libyan leader Col. Muammar Ghadaffi from Lieutenant to Major.
The UPDF sucked the air out of the controversy by describing the new rank as a "loan" for which Muhoozi had to train and work to earn.

In the likelihood that Mr Museveni becomes incapacitated while in office, a scenario whose possibility we've explained in earlier parts of this series, many observes think some system insiders would pick on Maj. Muhoozi, who will in any case have climbed higher in army leadership to take over the presidency.

But if Mr Museveni shares such "presidential plans" for his son, then he might face a wrenching quandary in reconciling them with a scenario if the First Lady Janet equally got orders from above (God) to pursue higher political ambitions as were reported by the Red Pepper.
Patriotism
And that's before Gen. Saleh, a man whom President Museveni has historically praised as a brave and patriotic fighter and "a clean man" despite many controversial issues where he has been cited as a central figure, like the botched underground sale of Uganda Commercial Bank and the junk chopper deal.

Gen. Saleh, according to one State House source, was ats one time ranking high on President Museveni's list of possible successors, alongside Brig. Henry Tumukunde. Then, according to this source, Gen. Saleh ruined his record with "alcohol and an obsession with money" while Brig. Tumukunde later allied himself with the 'wrong forces'.

Still, Gen. Saleh could be persuaded by many due to his strong following within the army and appeal to the ordinary people across the country, in the incident of a power vacuum, to 'hold the fort' and keep the country stable, adding a third dimension to the potential power contenders at State House.

But would the feelings of Ugandans over a member of the first family "inheriting" power from Museveni matter and can they prevent it if they don't like the idea?
There are some basic facts that point us to what is possible and what is less possible. Sources indicate for instance that Maj. Muhoozi has considerable control of PGB, which is widely understood to be the paramount centre of power within the army.

It would be possible for him, if he wanted, to parlay this strategic control and rally the army behind him. However, that is not a guarantee that such a transition would be that smooth.
Some members in senior army leadership might balk at the father-son, husband-wife or brother-brother succession and possibly attempt to foil it, sparking a fight within the military.
"There will likely be a lot of infighting within the palace," remarked Prof. Fredrick Sepebwa. "A coup is still possible."

While Ugandans have largely shown a timid reluctance to engage usurpers of power, they have lately cultivated a stomach for determined confrontation with police, a trend visible since November 2005 when Dr Kiiza Besigye was arrested.

This toughening militancy within the population could be easily exploited by opposition politicians to successfully thwart any extra-constitutional father-son or husband-wife succession.
Of course Mr Museveni's relatives are free to pursue constitutional means to succeed him.
Across the spectrum of Ugandan's political views, there's a general consensus that there's basically nothing wrong with Janet Museveni, Keinerugaba Muhoozi or any of Mr Museveni's close relatives succeeding him as long he/she does so in conformity with the laws of the land.

"Members of the first family, like any other Ugandan, are at liberty to play their rightful role in society," senior politician and Internal Affairs Minister Ruhakana Rugunda said about a possible succession from within the president's household.

However should any of these close relatives fall short on charisma and experience in the skilful and patient maneuvers of statecraft, it's unlikely that they would resist the temptation of using coercive force (the military) to pursue their ambitions.
And if Mr Museveni ever gets incapacitated in office, all forces with access to the military may try to usurp power against resistance from the population, and this could spark one of the most explosive political developments whose consequences are hard to ponder.